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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.