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The last time Vladimir Putin visited India four years ago, the international order was markedly different. The brief visit, limited by the pandemic, centered around talks on strategic and defense cooperation between the two leaders.

Months later, the large-scale military offensive of Ukraine would turn the Russian leader into a global pariah, greatly limiting his overseas engagements.

Furthermore, that period came before a significant shift in US-India relations, marked by contentious rhetoric and the introduction of substantial trade tariffs.

"In this context, the significance of Putin's journey to engage with the Indian PM is profound, serving as a signal of enduring ties and a rejection of external pressure," analysts note.

A Critical Juncture for Two Major Powers

The summit takes place at a delicate moment. The Kremlin leader comes following dismissing latest peace proposals for Ukraine, bolstered by claimed advances by Russian forces.

"For Russia, the key significance of this visit is its very occurrence," stated a prominent analyst based in Moscow. "It suggests a return to a form of routine global diplomacy."

For India, the risks are particularly elevated. The country navigates a difficult geopolitical climate, characterized by a less engaged United States, a diminished Russia, and an assertive China.

This delicate balance was underscored just before the visit, when senior Western diplomats released a joint opinion piece questioning Russia's peace efforts. This prompted a firm response from Indian officials, who labeled it an inappropriate diplomatic practice.

The Enduring Challenge from the North

The historical partnership originates from the Soviet period and is firmly rooted, with Moscow long being Delhi's top defense supplier. This alliance was generally accepted by the West before a recent shift.

For years, Western nations overlooked India's large-scale buying of cheap energy from Russia. However, recently stalled diplomacy, pressure mounted, leading to punitive tariffs and a major chill in transatlantic relations with Delhi.

"Consequently, India has returned to its traditional posture of maintaining multiple options," explained a foreign policy expert. "It signals to the US that it has alternatives and is waiting to see how the global dynamics settle."

Beyond international politics, India's fundamental concern with Russia is geography. "Beijing remains the primary security challenge to India, and historically, India has relied on Russia as a continental balancer against China," the analyst added.

The strengthening Moscow-Beijing axis has caused concern in Delhi, prompting efforts to prevent an excessively close bond between its adversary and its longtime partner.

This concern has also spurred India's drive to diversify its defense procurement, shrinking its dependence on Russian equipment from a dominant share to a reduced portion in the past few years.

"Delhi will try to strike a balance: buy sufficient Russian weaponry to keep the partnership alive, but avoid so dependent that a supply disruption would leave it vulnerable," the analyst remarked.

The Oil Question

Increased economic cooperation is likely to be a major topic. The Russian leader has publicly emphasized plans to take cooperation with India to a "qualitatively new level", defying Western sanctions.

The matter of energy imports remains pivotal. Although the Indian government has stated to keep buying Russian oil, recent restrictions have slowed activity from the commercial buyers. At the same time, India has moved to increase imports of American oil and gas.

A Kremlin spokesperson admitted "hurdles" in energy trade but said it would proceed without major disruption. The official downplayed the effect of sanctions, claiming they would cause only "insignificant" and "brief" disruptions and that Russia possesses the "means" to circumvent them.

Limited Leverage on Ukraine

As talks proceed, the issue of Ukraine is expected to be addressed primarily through India's consistent appeal for a peaceful resolution.

"Yes, Prime Minister Modi can speak to all parties, the nation does not possess the diplomatic clout to significantly influence the conflict," the analyst noted. "Beyond encouraging talks, its ability to make a difference is limited."

In the end, despite the visible friendship between the two leaders, the relationship is at its core one of "pure realpolitik," driven by national interest in a volatile world.